KTEP's Angela Kocherga visited El Paso, one of Texas' few strongholds for Democrats. The national polls. Party members believe one factor that could make places like Texas competitive is their effort to pump up youth turnout — a bloc that tends to have the lowest turnout rate, but one that leans Democratic. The result adds to a series of warning signs for Trump less than five months away from the election. The CNBC/Change poll found 45% of likely voters in the six states approve of how Trump has handled the coronavirus, while 55% disapprove. Got a confidential news tip? Trump-Biden presidential race may hinge on 6 swing states - Los Angeles Times Juweek Adolphe, Mon 28 Sep 2020 04.28 EDT But I'm also not happy with the outcome of Biden. The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016. voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes. “In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted last year. Specifically, a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Michael Swensen for NPR Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3. "My hope is that the tone of the presidency can return to what used to be normal," he told Censky. With 51 days to go, polls suggest that Biden’s lead is holding. "First off, has there ever been a pandemic to take over the world like this in such a short period of time? After this standardization process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average. Despite polls indicating that he is trailing in multiple battleground states, Trump has repeatedly suggested to his supporters that the only way he can lose the election is if Democrats cheat. But in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied on the economy with 46 percent support. The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. Biden still leads Trump in every swing state except North Carolina, where the two candidates are in a virtual tie, with 48% and 47% support, respectively. The hell that is remote learning, explained in a comic. However, Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, has been shifting blue in recent years. NPR's Scott Detrow talked to Trump backers waiting to hear the president at his rally in Latrobe, Pa., last week. Trump led in all previous versions of the survey dating back to March. Here is what NPR learned from conversations with voters in several key states: Trump retains loyal support in battleground states' rural areas. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin. Among registered voters, Biden held a 9 percentage point lead in Michigan, outside of the margin of error, and an 8 percentage point lead in Wisconsin, within the margin of error. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, polls only really “capture public sentiment during a moment in time,” and things could still change, especially with three presidential debates yet to come. Democrats try to expand map into traditionally red territory, Kevin Wood and Rachael McDermott pose for a masked portrait at a farmer's market in Phoenix. Jimmy Jenkins/KJZZ In the Michigan poll, Trump led Biden among likely voters who were asked which candidate would better manage the economy, with 49 percent backing Trump and 42 percent backing Biden. The theme was prevalent throughout the Republican convention, with a focus on protests in Kenosha, Wis., following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man paralyzed after being shot multiple times in the back in late August. And the other ones are for chaos and no order," Ralph Ruggiero, who was carrying a "Liberty or Death" sign, told Jenkins. The president won that area by 30 percentage points in 2016, and the massive crowd that showed up for his event during the pandemic shows the deep support he still has from his loyal base. But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016, when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, and Hillary Clinton's campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state. Arizona has been a solidly red state going back to the 1950s, and the last time it voted for a Democrat for president was 1996. I think that Trump did the best that he could, considering the circumstances," Amy Taylor, a fitness instructor, told Detrow. The president's handling of the coronavirus remains the central factor in the campaign, and Democrats want to keep it that way. The same polls suggest Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November. View the results of 2020 election polls. Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, has also received national coverage in recent days following the shooting of 29-year-old Black man Jacob Blake in Kenosha. More than 190,000 Americans have now died from the virus. Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes, was won by Trump in 2016 by 10,704 votes. The state has experienced an influx of retirees, but also includes more minority voters — especially Latino voters. A Franklin & Marshall poll released Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49% to 42%. In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points — but Chuck Rocha, a former adviser to the Bernie Sanders campaign, says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, or that might change: “What’s underreported right [now] is the problem in Nevada,” Rocha said. Trump, on the other hand, outdoes Biden among men, white voters without college degrees and white evangelical Christians. Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed doesn't blame Trump. A CNBC/Change Research survey shows Biden leading by 5 points in Wisconsin, 49% to 44%. So another surge of coronavirus cases seems likely. © 2020 CNBC LLC. In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election. Minority rule has reached the highest court in the land. Like other key swing states, the effort by the Trump campaign to push up votes from rural parts of Wisconsin could help him again. We want to hear from you. In fact, Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “alternate route” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now. Pablo Gutiérrez, hide caption. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden with a narrow lead over Trump in North Carolina, 48% to 47%. Former Vice President Joe Biden has expanded his edge over President Donald Trump in six 2020 election swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. It included 951 registered voters and 727 likely voters and was taken between Sept. 20 and Sept. 24. Biden's lead in averages of both national and swing state polls has widened in recent weeks as the Trump administration struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic and meet nationwide calls to address police brutality and systemic racism. But the right-leaning Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump with a slim lead on Biden, 46% to 45%. Jan Kaminski, one voter who didn't say which way she was planning to vote, said she watched the conventions and seemed more swayed by the GOP message. Minnesota Public Radio's Mark Zdechlik talked to Gretchen, a registered Democrat in Aitken, a rural town in the northern part of the state. Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016 but elected a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, to Congress in 2018. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. We'll do our part when it comes down to it," Mike Sever said. I know we live in a divided nation, but it just seems he's made it more divided than it has to be. Trump and Biden are in a tight race for support among all white voters and white Catholics. She ended up losing in the electoral college. State polls released this week show Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump in crucial states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. All Rights Reserved. Todd Gardner said that there still is a lot of support for Trump, but that he's prepared to back "anybody but Donald Trump.". Frank Hulley-Jones and Democratic Senate candidate in Tennessee discusses working-class background, See a woman play the violin — beautifully — while undergoing brain surgery. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. Sign up for the Only on the economy did likely voters have more faith in Trump, by a margin of 5 percentage points. In 2016, Trump edged Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, a state with 20 electoral college votes. Bill Galston writes that polling in swing states shows an early advantage for Joe Biden, and that President Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis is hurting him among a … Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election. ", Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. The new polls show a stark gender divide, with women propelling Biden into contention in states Trump must win. hide caption. While his core voting bloc — white voters without a college degree — made up a large percentage of nonvoters in 2016 and could turn out in greater numbers this year, an analysis of census data by NPR and the Brookings Institution indicates that his base is shrinking. The president's support is still strong in the rural communities where he surged in 2016. "The best thing for me is just to not vote. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump. But NPR interviews with voters across the country around Labor Day weekend found that most are locked into their support for either President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. A Division of NBCUniversal. In Michigan, the Democratic nominee is ahead of Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters, with 52 percent backing Biden and 44 percent supporting the president. Oregon already votes by mail. "He just wants people to riot. "In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May triggered a national movement calling for racial justice. Voters prefer Biden to handle the coronavirus and police violence, while they think Trump will do a better job with the economy and getting people back to work. The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally. Trump Rips Rival Biden As Destroyer Of American 'Greatness', Burn calories and exercise instead of burning out while you work from home, This Microsoft Excel Course Will Make You Computer Maven of Your Office, This Real Estate Tool Can Predict the Best Properties to Invest In, Don't Worry, Says Ted Cruz, We've Got Your Preexisting Conditions Covered, CDC Director Says Everything Dr. Scott Atlas Tells Trump 'Is False', More Questions Emerge About Breonna Taylor Investigation, US COVID-19 Cases Rise In 21 States, Experts Warn 'Huge Surge', Saudi Arabia Sends Maiden Shipment Of Blue Ammonia Fuel To Japan. Likely voters were split on who would better help their pocketbooks. A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3. Here’s what it can teach us in 2020. Biden met with Blake's family and called the president's rhetoric divisive, blaming him for further polarizing the country at a time when race relations are fragile. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. Last modified on Mon 28 Sep 2020 04.29 EDT. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. The poll found Biden leading Trump by 10 percentage points among likely voters in Wisconsin, with 54 percent supporting the former vice president and 44 percent backing the president. However, the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points. says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, Here’s how much you had to make in 2017 to pay more income tax than Donald Trump. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what’s happening in the news, from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. “The entire Culinary Union is laid off. The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. Only 23% said it was helpful. The poll released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump in all six states for the first time (though only narrowly in some): The CNBC/Change Research poll surveyed 2,408 likely voters across the six states from June 12-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Lauren Cross, involved in the Kenosha protests, told Silver about those on the streets: "I think, like, all the people out here are voting against Trump in some capacity. He instills riots and discord," said Karen Cayman, who lives in an area north of Milwaukee. "You know, you have to ... look what they did in Kenosha when the National Guard came in and enough backup came. WKAR's Abigail Censky visited one town, Williamston, that is competitive this time around and where there appears to be a split. NPR's Scott Detrow, KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins, KTEP's Angela Kocherga, WUWM's Maayan Silver, WKAR's Abigail Censky and MPR's Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report. Angela Kocherga/KTEP © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Respondents preferred Trump and Republicans on the economy and getting people back to work. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. "I think this has not been a normal four years of a president, and I really would like to get back to people not shouting at each other. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. If the presidential election were held today, polls in crucial swing states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would be in position for a narrow victory. Joe Biden now leads Trump in all six battleground states, averages of both national and swing state polls, Trump administration struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. In a conventional presidential race, any one of the grave issues in the headlines now — the coronavirus pandemic and Trump's own words about the "deadly threat"; a battered economy leaving millions of people jobless and businesses shuttered; the debate about a vaccine; media reports on Trump's comments about service members; wildfires engulfing the West — could turn the race for one candidate. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker that went for Clinton by just three-tenths of a percent, is also part of that “alternative route” strategy. On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. Young Texas voters not excited about either candidate, David Ashcroft and Amanda Kilcrease pose for a portrait in El Paso, Texas. While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country can point to how the race will develop. They gave Biden and Democrats the edge on handling the coronavirus, putting the middle class first, making health care more affordable, addressing police violence and discrimination and bringing the country together during times of crisis. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election The state also has a gubernatorial and senate race in November. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin. “In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State!” His campaign has followed that bluster with a $14 million advertising push in the state, larger than their buys in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states, We now know what Trump was trying to hide by holding back his tax returns. In both states, Biden holds an advantage of at least 17 percentage points among likely voters who think he’d better handle the coronavirus and race relations. He's attracted to Biden's pitch to return to a high level of civil discourse. Minnesota voted for Clinton in 2016, but a combination of the reaction to the looting in Minneapolis and broader local economic issues are boosting GOP prospects in the state. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. National polls consistently show Biden with a lead, but the contest will come down to an electoral map that hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago. "He's my law-and-order president. Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners. David Ashcroft, a 21-year-old waiter, appeared repelled by both candidates. We Insist: A Timeline Of Protest Music In 2020, Trump's Rural Support Puts Democratic Bulwark Minnesota In Play. Experts say Covid-19 cases are likely about to surge. For Biden to win, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states. Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. The survey found the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee leads the incumbent by a 48% to 45% margin across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which will determine who wins the White House in November. "We'll do our part. Gotta go one way, so we're gonna go the Biden way." The likely voter sample had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, and the registered voter sample had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. Biden's edge grew from 1 percentage point in the last swing-state poll released two weeks ago. Toss-up contests from Arizona to Florida hold the key for President Trump and Joe Biden. The New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with a 3 percentage point lead there, but Trump made a point of holding rallies in the state, which has a Republican governor, shortly after wrapping up the Republican National Convention last month. ", A "law and order" message in crucial Wisconsin. We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. The small contingent of undecided voters said they are unenthusiastic about their choices. Biden's edge grew … If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. Trump unloads on Fox News after network polls shows Biden ahead in key swing states. Of course, polling isn’t prophecy. View the results of 2020 election polls. Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should be considered a swing state this year, with shifting demographics changing the electorate there. hide caption. The likely voter numbers in Michigan fell within the margin of error, but the Wisconsin results were outside of the margin of error. Supporters of President Trump line up outside of Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to get into a Sept. 3 rally in Latrobe, Pa. A Franklin & Marshall poll released Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49% to 42%. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton, 49.02% to 47.82%. Additionally, activists — seeing an uptick in people coming out for demonstrations — vow that a focus on racial justice issues is motivating people not just to protest, but to vote. newsletter. North Carolina, which was won by Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, has 15 electoral votes. "I'm sure there'll be riots no matter which way it goes," she says. The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax. So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”. These latest results fall in line with these standing trends. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. But Kocherga found younger voters in El Paso were split on whether their vote would even matter — a sign the party still has work to do. In this particular moment in time, though, Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election. Mark Zdechlik/MPR News Maayan Silver, from WUWM, talked to voters in the area, many of whom suggested the back-and-forth over the issue was simply reinforcing their positions on the two candidates. The Supreme Court is about to hit an undemocratic milestone. He cited the Democrat's temperament as a key factor. Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. The NBC News-Marist poll in Wisconsin surveyed 1,131 adults. Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and spent his childhood there. Biden's lead in averages of both national and swing state polls has widened in recent weeks as the Trump administration struggles to contain … Both the president and Biden visited Wisconsin last week — with very different messages. Morry Gash/AP Even one dairy farmer who acknowledged that Trump's trade policies didn't always benefit him personally told Detrow he was still all in for the president. A CNBC/Change Research poll has Biden with a narrow lead over Trump, 49% to 47%. The 2020 presidential campaign heads into the fall stretch with a dizzying pace of news developments threatening to upend the contest. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in a CNBC/Change Research poll of six 2020 swing states. Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states With 51 days to go, polls suggest that Biden’s lead is holding. The contents of this site are ©2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. A Quinnipiac Poll conducted in mid-July showed Biden leading Trump by 13 points. But one former supporter of Trump's who expressed concerns about looting and unrest in Wisconsin did tell Silver she couldn't back him again.
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